Our Work Case Study
8-Figure DTC Brand

How LuckyRev's MMM Proved Brand Search Was Cannibalizing Organic

An established 8-figure DTC brand came to LuckyRev at the end of Q1 2024 with over 40% of their Google Ads budget going to brand search, a channel they believed was driving strong returns.

Google Ads Analytics LuckyMMM
LuckyMMM brand search cannibalization analysis — 8-figure DTC brand
+54%
MMM ROI (8.5 → 14.7)
+48%
In-Platform ROAS (24.7 → 36.5)
-75%
Brand Search Spend QoQ
+16%
Net Sales

Strong brand. But was paid search actually working?

This established 8-figure DTC brand had invested heavily in Google Ads, with over 40% of their budget dedicated to brand search. In-platform, it looked like their best-performing channel, with a 24.7x ROAS.

But LuckyRev's team had a hypothesis: was brand search actually converting incrementally, or was it capturing demand that would have converted organically anyway, cannibalizing free traffic and inflating reported ROAS?

In-platform ROAS masking true channel contribution

The brand's Google Ads platform showed an impressive 24.7x ROAS on brand search. But LuckyRev hypothesized this was largely capturing demand that would have converted organically, cannibalizing free traffic and inflating reported ROAS without driving real incremental revenue.

40% of Google budget on brand search

A significant share of search budget was capturing demand that would have converted organically, inflating ROAS while limiting true incremental growth.

In-platform ROAS masking true channel contribution

Strong reported ROAS across channels gave a false sense of confidence, obscuring the channels that were actually moving the needle.

No MMM to validate channel contributions

Without a Media Mix Model, there was no way to know which spend was truly driving revenue vs. taking credit for it.

LuckyMMM reveals the true ROI

LuckyRev's data science team ran their proprietary Media Mix Model to determine the true incremental contribution of brand search. The MMM revealed a Q1 median ROI of 8.5, far below what the platform reported, then systematically reduced brand search spend and reallocated to net-new customer growth.

01

MMM Analysis

Ran LuckyMMM to determine the true incremental value of brand search vs. organic conversion capture.

LuckyMMM
02

Hypothesis Testing

Reduced brand CPC and overall brand search share of wallet in a controlled test environment.

Google Ads
03

Budget Reallocation

Shifted spend to non-brand campaigns targeting new customers with genuine incremental intent.

Google Ads
04

Q2 Validation

MMM ROI improved from 8.5 to 14.7 in Q2, confirming the strategy and validating the model.

Analytics

Growth you can measure

Here's what LuckyRev delivered for 8-Figure DTC Brand, in numbers that matter.

+54%
MMM ROI (8.5 → 14.7)
True incremental ROI improved from Q1 to Q2 after reallocation.
+48%
In-Platform ROAS (24.7 → 36.5)
Even platform-reported ROAS improved with cleaner attribution.
-75%
Brand Search Spend QoQ
Radical reduction in brand search spend freed budget for growth.
+16%
Net Sales
Real revenue grew despite, and because of, spending less on brand search.
Brands often don't take a deep look into the question of "how important really is brand search for our business?" Plenty of agencies will simply say "you need to max out brand budget for brand defense" without a deeper analysis. But the need for brand investment varies significantly depending on retailer, competitor presence, and budget. Further come the questions of how much am I willing to spend on branded clicks and overall brand budget? LuckyMMM has helped tremendously in determining the right costs and percentage of total ad budget to allocate to brand campaigns on a business-by-business basis.
Jacqueline Rioux, Director of Paid Search at LuckyRev
Jacqueline Rioux
Director of Paid Search, LuckyRev

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